More Democrats Are Leaving The House — And That Could Help Republicans Win

Democrats are feeling pretty buoyant these days. Last week, they won a highly competitive special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District, which came on the heels of other stronger-than-expected special election performances since the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision to overturn the constitutional right to an abortion.

And earlier this month, pro-abortion rights forces turned back a state constitutional amendment in Kansas that would have allowed for an abortion ban there. Finally, the two parties are also running neck and neck in generic ballot polling, which asks voters whether they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate this fall, after Republicans led by about 2 percentage points prior to the Dobbs ruling.

Yet if we zero in on the House, the overall terrain is still quite favorable to the GOP. After all, FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast still gives Republicans about a better than 3 in 4 shot of capturing the lower chamber.

The GOP has lost ground in the forecast since June, but its continued edge comes down to factors such as geography (Democrats are concentrated in metropolitan areas), redistricting (Republicans once again have more favorable seats) and history (the president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterms).